蒙特卡罗法如何应用于可靠性预计、设计

谢谢fuckit兄，师傅领进门、修行在个人；谢谢指点！

我们用montecarlo主要在Statisticaltolerance或者SensitivityAnalysis方面.
我认为它本身就是个statistical的工具,如果能了解它的理念:建立模型–>找出transferfunciton–>noisefunction的分布–>Stimulation–>Results–>Sensitivity–>Optimization
用于系统级的分析应该也不困难.

附件的paperFYI

谢谢了；不过看了下，好像用的是专用软件导出的数据，而且是用于机械测试的；有没有用于系统级预计或设计的，或板级预计或设计的？最好有详细的计算过程，再次感谢！

传个Example给lz参考
这个是Crystalball这个软件中案例
[quote][b]ReliabilityofaHelicalSpring[/b]

Author
CrystalBall

Summary
Inthisexample,adesignengineerhasthetaskofchoosingthebestofthreematerialstouseforahelicalspring.TheengineermustuseCrystalBall®toaccountfortheknownvariationsinthestressparametersandsteelstrengths.Thismodelishelpfulforunderstandingthesensitivityanalysisfeature,theTornadoCharttool,theoverlaychart,andtheeffectsofdifferenttypesofdistributions.

Keywords:assumption,forecast,sensitivitychart,TornadoCharttool,engineering,reliability

Discussion
Thebestmaterialistheonethatwillgivethespringthehighestlikelihoodofwithstandingitspeakrequirements.Thelikelihoodofsuccess,knownasthespring’sreliability,canbeexpressedastheprobabilitythatthespring’sstrength(S)willexceedthestress(s)subjectedtoit:

Reliability=p(S>s)[/quote]