Using Reliability Growth Models to Detect Emerging Warranty Problems .pdf

UsingReliabilityGrowthModelstoDetectEmergingWarrantyProblems.pdf

Thispaperexplorestheuseofreliabilityanalysistechniquestoanalyzewarrantydata.
Claimforecastingandearlywarningtechniquesarenotnew,buttheapplicationofreliabilitygrowthmodelingtoprovideenhancedpredictivecapabilityisarelativelyunexploredarea.Inparticular,attentionwillberestrictedtotheproblemofmakingforecastsfromlimiteddataearlyinaproduct’slifecycle.

Fittingastatisticalmodeltoacompletesetofdataisrelativelyeasycomparedtoforecastingfromaverysmallsampleearlyinaproductlifecycle.Likewise,correctlydetectingaqualityorreliabilityproblemfromwarrantyclaimsduringthe4th,5thor6thmonthofproductionismuchmoredifficultthanbythe10thor11thmonth.Yet,earlyoninthelifecycleisthemostcrucialtimeperiodtodetectaproblemsoastocorrectitandremovethepotentialproblemfromeverreachingthecustomer,therebylimitingthefinancialimpactviapotentialwarrantyclaims.