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NewThrustforProbabilisticRiskAssessment(PRA)atNASA
RiskAnalysisforAerospaceSystemsII:MissionSuccessStartswithSafety,
Preamble:RiskIsInevitable
DefinitionsofRisk
Riskisthemeasureoftheprobabilityandseverityofadverseeffects.Lowrance,OfAcceptableRisk
•Riskisasetoftripletsthatanswerthequestions:
1)Whatcangowrong?(accidentscenarios)
2)Howlikelyisit?(probabilities)
3)Whataretheconsequences?(adverseeffects)Kaplan&Garrick,RiskAnalysis,1981
•Riskistheprobabilitythataprojectwillexperienceundesirableconsequences.NASA-NPG:7120.5A
[本帖最后由dachqian于2007-9-412:30编辑] |
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