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UsingReliabilityGrowthModelstoDetectEmergingWarrantyProblems.pdf
Thispaperexplorestheuseofreliabilityanalysistechniquestoanalyzewarrantydata.
Claimforecastingandearlywarningtechniquesarenotnew,buttheapplicationofreliabilitygrowthmodelingtoprovideenhancedpredictivecapabilityisarelativelyunexploredarea.Inparticular,attentionwillberestrictedtotheproblemofmakingforecastsfromlimiteddataearlyinaproduct’slifecycle.
Fittingastatisticalmodeltoacompletesetofdataisrelativelyeasycomparedtoforecastingfromaverysmallsampleearlyinaproductlifecycle.Likewise,correctlydetectingaqualityorreliabilityproblemfromwarrantyclaimsduringthe4th,5thor6thmonthofproductionismuchmoredifficultthanbythe10thor11thmonth.Yet,earlyoninthelifecycleisthemostcrucialtimeperiodtodetectaproblemsoastocorrectitandremovethepotentialproblemfromeverreachingthecustomer,therebylimitingthefinancialimpactviapotentialwarrantyclaims. |
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